PULL THE
GOALIE
PLAY

DID TAMPA BAY PULL THE GOALIE TOO LATE AGAINST NEW JERSEY?

OCT 11, 2025 · BENCHMARK INTERNATIONAL ARENA · THE GAUNTLET

FINALNJD 5, TBL 3
AFTER 2NJD 3, TBL 2
REAL PULLTBL 3:17
MODELNOW 1.1%
REAL ONE1.0%
GRADEFAIR
SHOTSNJD 31, TBL 17

Tampa Bay pulled a little late, by the model. Vasilevskiy went to the bench with 3:17 left, down two. With 3:43 left, the best call on the board was PULL HIM NOW, 1.1% to win; the real pull was worth 1.0%, graded FAIR. New Jersey won 5-3.

THE MODEL'S CALL

The call Tampa Bay faced with 3:43 left, down two, and each option's chance to win by the model.

WIN %CALL
1.1PULL HIM NOW BEST
1.0AT THE NEXT WHISTLE REAL
0.8WAIT UNTIL 1:30
THE REAL CALL

VASILEVSKIY STAYED IN FOR THE DRAW. PULLED AT THE 3:17 WHISTLE (GOALIE STOPPED AFTER SOG) FOR AN OFFENSIVE ZONE DRAW.

Where the chances come from: three seasons of NHL data.

THE LAST FIVE MINUTES

3:43RADDYSH SCORES. NJD 5, TBL 3.
3:17VASILEVSKIY TO THE BENCH. TBL GOES 6 ON 5.
1:49MARKSTROM PENALTY. DELAYING GAME PUCK OVER GLASS.
1:49TBL TIMEOUT.

TIMEOUTS

Tampa Bay called its timeout in the third period, with 1:49 left.

WHAT HAPPENED

THE LIGHTNING SCORED ONE IN THE THIRD, NEW JERSEY SCORED TWO, AND NEW JERSEY WON 5-3.

PLAY THE GAUNTLET

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