PULL THE
GOALIE
PLAY

DID TAMPA BAY PULL THE GOALIE TOO LATE AGAINST TORONTO?

DEC 8, 2025 · SCOTIABANK ARENA · THE GAUNTLET

FINALTBL 0, TOR 2
AFTER 2TBL 0, TOR 1
REAL PULLTBL 2:16
MODELWAIT 1:30 6.1%
REAL ONE6.7%
GRADEGOOD CALL
SHOTSTBL 29, TOR 25

Tampa Bay pulled Johansson with 2:16 left, down one, and never got the tying goal. Toronto hit the empty net with 0:01 left. The timing wasn't the problem: by the model the call at 4:57 graded GOOD CALL, 6.7% to win against a best of 6.1%. Toronto won 2-0.

THE MODEL'S CALL

The call Tampa Bay faced with 4:57 left, down one, and each option's chance to win by the model.

WIN %CALL
6.1WAIT UNTIL 1:30 BEST
5.2AT THE NEXT WHISTLE
4.4PULL HIM NOW
6.7THE REAL PULL, 2:16 REAL
THE REAL CALL

JOHANSSON STAYED IN UNTIL 2:16, THEN CAME OUT ON THE FLY.

Where the chances come from: three seasons of NHL data.

THE LAST FIVE MINUTES

4:57GUENTZEL PENALTY. HOOKING.
2:16JOHANSSON TO THE BENCH. TBL GOES 6 ON 5.
1:28TBL TIMEOUT.
0:01MATTHEWS SCORES. TBL 0, TOR 2.

TIMEOUTS

Tampa Bay called its timeout in the third period, with 1:28 left.

WHAT HAPPENED

THE LIGHTNING SCORED NOTHING IN THE THIRD, TORONTO SCORED ONE, AND TORONTO WON 2-0.

PLAY THE GAUNTLET

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